Exactly 10 years ago, LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers were trailing the Golden State Warriors 3-1 in the 2016 NBA Finals, with their backs against the wall. On June 13, 2016, James and Kyrie Irving both scored 41 points to lift the Cavs to a Game 5 win, extending the NBA Finals and eventually leading to Cleveland becoming the first team to ever come back from a 3-1 hole in the Finals.
Could Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs follow in James’ footsteps exactly 10 years later to the day?
On the eve of Game 5 in San Antonio, which will take place on June 13, the Spurs are fighting a mental battle more than anything else against the New York Knicks. Careless mistakes and late-game turnovers have resulted in them trailing the Knicks 3-1 in the 2026 NBA Finals, a series that should be tied 2-2 at the very least.
Youth and inexperience on the biggest stage are clearly playing a role here, but like the Cavaliers of old, all the Spurs need is momentum.
Winning one game can create this sense of belief that the young Spurs desperately need right now, especially following their 29-point collapse in Game 4, the largest comeback in NBA Finals history. At this point, all San Antonio can do is take things one game at a time now that the Knicks are one game away from a championship, but this is exactly what LeBron faced a decade ago as well.
“Our mindset is get one,” James clearly stated after Cleveland’s Game 4 loss to the Warriors in 2016. “It’s about getting one on their home floor, where they’ve been very successful.”
Although he did not echo James word-for-word, Wembanyama shared similar thoughts after the Spurs’ Game 4 collapse and facing a 3-1 deficit in the NBA Finals.
“I think it’s going to go one of two ways,” Wembanyama said, looking ahead to Game 5. “The bad one would be giving up. The good one would be getting stronger through this, getting more together. I know this is what we’re going to do… We’ve proven that we can surpass these difficulties.
“Even though we haven’t been there before, I’m convinced we’re built that way and we’re going to use the better of this.”
All it takes is one game to shift a series, and that is the Spurs’ mindset right now. What happened in the first four games of the 2026 NBA Finals is certainly notable, but it really doesn’t mean anything heading into Game 5.
The Spurs will be taking things one game at a time, starting with a chance to rebuild their confidence and mindset on their home floor. Although that is not a luxury the Cavs had, as they needed to win Game 5 on the road to extend their series, there are some glaring similarities between the 2016 and 2026 NBA Finals, aside from the fact that they are exactly 10 years apart to the day.
Can history repeat itself in NBA Finals?
In the 2016 NBA Finals, the Cavaliers lost the first two games of the series on the road to the Warriors before things shifted to Cleveland. There, the Cavs took Game 3 in a dominant 30-point win, but they couldn’t back this victory up and fell at home in Game 4.
Each of the first four games of the series was decided by at least 11 points, and it appeared as if the Warriors would easily be able to close things out returning home in Game 5.
Through four games of the 2026 NBA Finals, we have seen a similar trend when it comes to the final results.
The Spurs lost the first two games of the NBA Finals, as the Cavs did in 2016, before gaining a little bit of confidence in Game 3. However, San Antonio lost the first two games of the series at home, whereas the Cavaliers fell on the road.
Even so, both Wembanyama and LeBron trailed 2-1 before again losing in Game 4. We know how the 2016 Finals played out, with the Cavaliers winning three straight games en route to their first championship, and two of those final three wins were on the road.
From the Spurs’ perspective, things project to be a lot easier simply given that if this series did somehow get to Game 7, the Spurs would play two games at home instead of on the road in a raucous, hostile New York environment. Already losing two games at home, will Wemby and the Spurs really drop another game on their home floor in the NBA Finals, entering Game 5 in a do-or-die scenario?
Looking back at the 2016 NBA Finals, LeBron was averaging 24.8 points per game and shooting 48.2 percent from the floor through the first four games. So far in the 2026 NBA Finals, Wembanyama is averaging 27.8 points per game and shooting 43.5 percent from the floor. Crazy enough, Wemby has taken 85 shots through four games, the same amount James had entering Game 5 of the 2016 NBA Finals.
As a team, the Cavs had an offensive rating of 105.5 ahead of Game 5 and finished the series with an offensive rating of 108.5, overcoming a 3-1 hole to win it all. Right now, the Spurs’ offensive rating against the Knicks is 108.7, ahead of Game 5.
Unlike the Cavaliers, Wembanyama and the Spurs have lost two games in the 2026 NBA Finals by a single point, and they have controlled the vast majority of every game. Whereas the Cavs were getting blown out at times by the Warriors, San Antonio is truly down 3-1 because of a few possessions in this series.
Obviously, one play at the end of the game is not the end-all-be-all, as turnovers in the first quarter or mistakes made in the first half absolutely factor into losses. But in the Spurs’ case, one less costly turnover late in either Game 2 or Game 4 against the Knicks, as well as a better decision when it comes to shot selection in the final two minutes, absolutely would’ve made this series at least 2-2 heading into Game 5.
The bottom line is that the Spurs are in this series, and they can use the 2016 NBA Finals as motivation and reference for themselves. After all, Spurs veteran Harrison Barnes was on the losing end of things with the Warriors a decade ago, and he witnessed history through the wrong lens first-hand.
Maybe history can now be on Barnes’ side, and the Spurs can follow in the Cavs’ footsteps entering Game 5. Then again, while this is the same scenario Cleveland faced in 2016, the biggest difference is that the Cavaliers didn’t have their hearts pulled from their chest and surrender a 29-point lead in Game 4.
Same scenario, different circumstances
Within the first four to five minutes of Game 5 in San Antonio on Saturday, we will know whether the Spurs have what it takes to put their recent collapse behind them and move on. Nobody has said this will be easy to do, and that is a game that will forever live with all of those on the Spurs’ roster.
But at the same time, the NBA Finals are about adapting and overcoming adversity. After all, it takes four games to claim the Larry O’Brien Trophy, and winning that last game is the hardest.
The Spurs certainly know this, and that’s why all they can do entering Game 4 is simply take things one step at a time.
“As much as it hurts, we’re still playing,” Keldon Johnson said after the Spurs’ Game 4 loss. “I feel like we have a special group. We’re back at it, and we believe we can get it done. That’s not going to change regardless.
“Our fans show up every time. They’ve been showing up since I’ve been here. I know our fans will be who they are. We expect no less, no different. We go back home and approach it one game at a time, one possession at a time, and get the job done.”
Stephon Castle shared a similar mindset down 3-1, claiming that the Spurs still have strong belief in one another and the “confidence” that they will win Game 5.
“We’ve pretty much dictated the winner and loser of all these games,” Castle said. “I think just us finishing games and trying to maintain our leads has been tough for us.”
The Cavs are the only team in NBA Finals history to even overcome a 3-1 deficit and win a championship.
No team has ever come back to win it all after losing the first two games of the series at home. This Spurs team has been known for making history all year long, and maybe… just maybe, that stunning loss in the previous game to the Knicks fuels San Antonio.
Whether or not the Spurs can truly get past the mental roadblock from Game 4 in Madison Square Garden is the big question entering Game 5.
LeBron was in a much different place in his career during the 2026 NBA Finals than Wemby currently is. This is just the start of what could go down as one of the most legendary careers in NBA history for the Spurs star.
He has watched James his entire career, and he witnessed the 2016 NBA Finals just like every other basketball fan across the globe. Nobody said it would be easy, but overcoming a 3-1 hole in the Finals is not impossible. LeBron accomplished it, and now Wembanyama, with all the similar history between these two series, will look to do the same.
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